Category: Global Economy
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The Developing-Country Convergence Crisis
For much of the modern development story, there was one powerful assumption: poorer countries would eventually become richer. They would industrialise, export, attract investment, acquire technology, improve productivity and gradually close the income gap with advanced economies. Globalisation was expected to make this process faster. That assumption is becoming much…
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The AI Dependency Hidden Inside Free Access
A small manufacturer may soon receive an AI tool at almost no licence cost and still find that using it creates an expensive dependence. The software may be open, while the computing power, maintenance, upgrades and practical knowledge remain elsewhere. For India, this is the uncomfortable question behind the next…
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The Conditional Market: When Being Competitive Is No Longer Enough
A factory can make a good product, offer a fair price and find an interested buyer—and still struggle to secure the order. Its shipment may fall outside a favourable tariff quota. Its inputs may fail an origin requirement. Its production may depend on restricted technology. Its delivery system may be…
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When Geography Returns to Globalisation
When Geography Returns to Globalisation For almost three decades, globalisation created the impression that geography was becoming less important. Goods could be designed in America, manufactured in Asia, assembled somewhere else and sold across the world. Containerisation, large ports, cheap shipping and digital supply-chain systems made distance appear manageable. The…
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A World Full of Workers but Short of Labour
The global economy is entering a strange period. Millions of young people are searching for stable work in South Asia and Africa, while employers in Europe, Japan, South Korea and other ageing economies are struggling to find workers. One part of the world has people without sufficient jobs. Another has…
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The African Demographic Opportunity
The Continent Growing Younger in an Ageing World The twenty-first century may be remembered as the period when the centre of the world population slowly shifted towards Africa. Europe is ageing. China’s workforce has begun to contract. Japan is already struggling with labour shortages. Several countries in East Asia are…
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The Fertilizer Vulnerability: When a Gas Shock Becomes a Food Crisis
The Hidden Energy System Beneath Every Farm Agriculture still looks natural from a distance. There is soil, rain, sunlight, seed and human labour. But modern farming is also an industrial system built on natural gas, mined minerals, global shipping, credit and government subsidy. A farmer may sow wheat in India,…
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A World That Distrusts the Dollar but Still Needs It
The world is searching for an alternative to the US dollar. Governments worry that excessive dollar dependence exposes them to American interest rates, financial sanctions, asset freezes and political pressure. Central banks are buying more gold. Countries are settling some bilateral trade in local currencies. New payment systems are being…
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The Economic Security Doctrine
When Dependence Becomes a ThreatFor much of the last four decades, economic policy was built around a comforting belief: countries that traded more would fight less. Supply chains would cross borders, capital would move freely, technology would spread, and mutual dependence would make conflict too costly. The factory, the container…
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