Category: GDP
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India and the Fear of Recession in 2026
The discussion around whether India is moving towards a recession in 2026 reflects a deeper anxiety about the changing global economic order rather than an immediate collapse of the Indian economy itself. Historically, India has faced multiple moments where fears of economic slowdown created psychological uncertainty among businesses, investors, and…
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The Cost of Missing Vision, Strategy and Policy in Indian Economic Development
India has often achieved growth despite policy complexity, institutional fragmentation, and strategic inconsistency rather than because of a fully aligned long-term economic vision. The country has repeatedly demonstrated entrepreneurial energy, demographic strength, and technological adaptability, yet many opportunities have either arrived late, remained incomplete, or failed to scale due to…
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AI and India’s Next Growth Curve: Why the Next Five Years Will Redefine the GDP Trajectory
By 2026, the global economy has reached an inflection point where AI is no longer a competitive advantage—it’s the baseline for competitiveness. Countries that embed AI into production, governance, and services will outpace those that lag. As the world recalibrates supply chains, labour markets, and digital governance around AI, GDP…
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India’s Growth Frontier in a Fragmented World: A Critical Outlook Based on Economic Survey 2025–26
India enters FY26-27 at a rare intersection of structural stability and global turbulence. Chapter 1 of the Economic Survey 2025-26, “State of the Economy: Pushing the Growth Frontier,” captures this paradox sharply: while the world remains caught between tariff wars, geopolitical realignments, and supply-chain volatility, India’s domestic engines continue to…
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The End of Easy Growth
Global business is moving into a structurally different phase—one where growth is slower, shocks are more frequent, and predictability is scarce. The post-Cold War era of liberalized trade, abundant liquidity, and volume-driven expansion is fading. In its place is an economy shaped by tighter monetary conditions, fragmented geopolitics, and policy…
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The US Economy in 2025: A Surge, a Slowdown, and a Strategic Crossroads
The United States entered late-2025 on a surprising note: GDP growth accelerated to 4.3% (annualized) in Q3, the strongest pace in two years and far above market expectations. This resurgence—impressive on the surface—comes after a volatile period marked by policy reversals, tariff redesigns, and recession anxieties. Historically, such late-cycle surges…
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India’s GDP Growth Story: Strong Numbers, Softer Foundations?A Critical Look Through the IMF Lens
India’s growth narrative today stands at an intriguing crossroads—powerfully expanding, yet increasingly questioned. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its October 2025 World Economic Outlook, reaffirmed India as the fastest-growing major economy, projecting 6.6% GDP growth for FY2025-26 and 6.2% for FY2026-27, despite intensifying US tariff pressures and global supply-chain…
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India’s Manufacturing Moment: From “Make in India” to “Invent in India”
India stands at an inflection point. The next two decades will determine whether the nation becomes one of the world’s leading manufacturing and innovation hubs—or remains a peripheral contributor to global supply chains. The ambition is clear: by 2047, when India completes 100 years of independence, manufacturing must evolve from…
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Review of RBI’s Monetary Policy (October 1, 2025)
1. A Timid Pause Amid Urgency The unchanged repo rate at 5.5% and a neutral stance reflect excessive caution at a time when essential. Having already delivered 100 bps cuts since February, the RBI has chosen passivity rather than leadership. The policy betrays an overreliance on “wait and watch” when…
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