Category: USA
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Global Growth Enters a Low-Gear Phase
The world economy is entering a distinctly different phase—neither overheating with inflationary pressure nor collapsing into recession. Instead, global growth is settling into a low-gear, below-trend trajectory that reflects structural adjustments across major economies. This new normal challenges the assumptions that shaped global policy, trade flows, and investment strategies over…
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Trade Uncertainty in the Shadow of a 500% Tariff Threat
Trade wars have always arrived dressed as morality plays. From the Smoot–Hawley tariffs of the 1930s to the technology embargoes of the 2010s, economic instruments have repeatedly been repurposed as geopolitical weapons. The current proposal emerging from Washington—backed publicly by Donald Trump—to impose up to 500% tariffs on countries purchasing…
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Oil, Power, and the Return of Geopolitical Pricing
Oil markets have always been more than a story of barrels and balances; they are a mirror of global power, conflict, and expectations about the future. The recent move of crude prices to two-week highs reflects not a sudden structural shortage, but a familiar cocktail of geopolitical anxiety layered over…
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US GDP Beats Forecasts: Growth Against the Grain
For more than two years, the dominant macro narrative predicted that high interest rates, trade disruptions, and geopolitical shocks would inevitably push the United States into a slowdown, if not a recession. Yet the data has consistently defied those expectations. US GDP growth has surprised on the upside, even as…
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The US Economy in 2025: A Surge, a Slowdown, and a Strategic Crossroads
The United States entered late-2025 on a surprising note: GDP growth accelerated to 4.3% (annualized) in Q3, the strongest pace in two years and far above market expectations. This resurgence—impressive on the surface—comes after a volatile period marked by policy reversals, tariff redesigns, and recession anxieties. Historically, such late-cycle surges…
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The Long Road to an India–US Trade Compact: Between Strategic Convergence and Structural Friction
A Relationship Shaped by History, Not Habit The idea of an India–US Free Trade Agreement has resurfaced many times over the past three decades, only to stall at the intersection of economics and politics. Unlike India’s trade engagements with the EU, ASEAN, or even the UK, a US trade deal…
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Global Trade at a Crossroads: The Geopolitical Economics of Decoupling
The global trading system is entering a new phase—one defined not by efficiency and cost advantages but by security, resilience, and strategic autonomy. Over the past three decades, globalization was driven by the pursuit of low-cost manufacturing, scale efficiencies, and integrated supply chains. China became the world’s industrial backbone, supplying…
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The Hidden Backbone of America’s Economy: Why Electronics Manufacturing Still Matters
For decades, the global narrative has been that the United States “lost” electronics manufacturing to East Asia. Images of assembly lines in China, semiconductor clusters in Taiwan, and display fabs in South Korea have dominated public imagination. Yet new data reveals a more complex and far more consequential reality: the…
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The Mirage of Stability: Why U.S. Consumer Spending Decline Signals a Deeper Structural Strain
At first glance, the U.S. economy entering late 2025 looks deceptively strong. Headline growth remains positive, unemployment near historic lows, and corporate earnings continue to meet or exceed expectations. Yet, beneath this reassuring surface, a deeper unease is emerging. The Financial Times recently reported that real consumer expenditure in the…
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