Category: Indian economy
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Trade Realignment and India’s Strategic Window: Scale Is Not Strategy
For three decades, global trade expanded under the logic of efficiency. Production concentrated where costs were lowest, logistics were predictable, and geopolitics appeared stable. The rise of global value chains made East Asia—particularly China—the manufacturing anchor of the world. But the shocks of the past decade—trade wars, pandemic disruptions, technology…
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AI and India’s Next Growth Curve: Why the Next Five Years Will Redefine the GDP Trajectory
By 2026, the global economy has reached an inflection point where AI is no longer a competitive advantage—it’s the baseline for competitiveness. Countries that embed AI into production, governance, and services will outpace those that lag. As the world recalibrates supply chains, labour markets, and digital governance around AI, GDP…
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A World Becoming Smaller—But Not Closer
Over the past four decades, the world has become smaller in terms of communication, transportation, and information exchange. Digital platforms compress distances; logistics networks deliver goods overnight; and technologies such as AI and blockchain make cross-border collaboration seamless. However, paradoxically, global trade is becoming more distant, fragmented, and politically conditioned.…
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The Truth About the India–USA Trade Deal: What Really Happened and What It Really Means
Despite dramatic headlines and political messaging, India and the United States still do not have a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) as of February 2026. What was announced between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not an FTA but a “limited trade understanding”—a narrow, transactional arrangement designed to…
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Three Capital Market Risks Flagged in Economic Survey 2025–26 But Missed in the Union Budget
India’s Economic Survey 2025–26 presented a clear warning: the capital market is entering a structurally volatile phase, shaped by global financial fragmentation, rising protectionism, and India’s rapid domestic financialisation. Yet, the Union Budget 2025–26 largely avoided engaging with these vulnerabilities, focusing instead on borrowings, incremental financial sector reforms, and targeted…
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Union Budget 2026
The Union Budget 2026–27 arrives at a moment when India stands at a crossroads—balancing ambition with inclusion, technology with tradition, and domestic priorities with global headwinds. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s Budget Speech (February 1, 2026) sets out a bold restructuring of India’s growth journey with unprecedented clarityUnion Budget 2026–27: A…
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India’s External Sector: Playing the Long Game in a Fragmenting World
India’s external sector in 2025–26 stands at a moment where history, geopolitics, and technology intersect. The world economy is moving away from hyper-globalisation toward fragmented blocs, supply-chain realignments, industrial subsidies and weaponised trade policy. Chapter 4 of the Indian Economic Survey 2025-26, titled External Sector: Playing the Long Game, captures…
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Monetary Management in Transition: India’s Regulatory Touch in a Fragmenting Global Economy
The Indian Economic Survey 2025–26 marks a decisive phase in India’s long journey of monetary evolution. From the license-permit era of the 1970s to the post-liberalisation financial deepening after 1991, and from inflation-targeting adoption in 2016 to the digital acceleration post-UPI in 2019, India’s monetary system has continuously reinvented itself…
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