Category: international trade
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Small Businesses and U.S. Export Growth: Between Resilience and Structural Shifts
The Unsung Backbone The story of U.S. exports is not only about global corporations but also about the vast network of small businesses that quietly fuel America’s trade engine. Nearly 97% of U.S. exporters are small firms, and their contribution extends beyond numbers—they embody productivity, resilience, and innovation. Historically, American…
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Why Global Imbalances Do Matter
For much of the post-war era, global economic policymakers debated whether large current account surpluses and deficits were merely accounting quirks or deeper reflections of systemic fragility. Each time the world experienced a financial shock—from the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s to the Asian financial crisis of 1997,…
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AI and Global Trade: The Next Great Transformation
When the World Trade Organization projects that artificial intelligence could drive a 40% jump in global trade by 2040, it is not making a casual forecast—it is signaling a structural transformation comparable to the invention of the steam engine or the internet. The implications are profound, particularly for MSMEs in…
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When a Virtuous Cycle Risks Turning Vicious: India Under Trump’s Trade Lens
India’s economy has often been described as a “virtuous cycle” — a loop where rising domestic demand fuels investment, which in turn creates jobs, higher incomes, and stronger consumption. For years, this cycle has been reinforced by India’s services exports, particularly in information technology, business process outsourcing, and skilled professional…
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Trade Policies, Tariffs, and Global Export Shifts
In today’s global economy, trade policies and tariffs have emerged as decisive forces shaping export flows, investment patterns, and the competitive landscape of industries. The recent escalation of tariffs by the United States on Chinese goods, along with continuing tensions between the EU and the U.S., demonstrates how political and…
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India–U.S. Trade Relations in Turmoil: The Hidden Depth of the Crisis
India’s trade relationship with the United States has entered one of its most challenging phases in recent years. What began as targeted tariffs has now snowballed into a broad-based crisis, with severe implications for multiple industries and long-term economic ties. The collapse of smartphone exports to America is only the…
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U.S. Tariffs on Indian Exports: A Shock and a Wake-Up Call
The recent imposition of 50% tariffs on Indian exports by the United States, linked to India’s discounted oil purchases from Russia, has once again highlighted how geopolitics and trade policy intersect. According to estimates, India’s economic growth could take a hit of nearly 0.8 percentage points, a non-trivial impact for…
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Rising Delivery Delays and Their Cost Impact on U.S. Manufacturing Imports
Over the past few years, the U.S. manufacturing sector has faced mounting challenges in maintaining smooth supply chains. Between 2018 and 2024, delivery delays for imported foreign inputs lengthened by an average of 21 days. This increase has not only disrupted production schedules but also forced firms to hold higher…
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Shifting Trade Currents: What Global Manufacturing Trends Signal for the Future
The global trade and manufacturing landscape is entering a phase of profound realignment. A combination of tariff shocks, overcapacity in strategic industries, and structural weaknesses in traditional manufacturing hubs is shaping how companies and economies navigate the coming decade. At the same time, emerging markets are experiencing divergent trajectories, revealing…
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