Category: international trade
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Trade Uncertainty in the Shadow of a 500% Tariff Threat
Trade wars have always arrived dressed as morality plays. From the Smoot–Hawley tariffs of the 1930s to the technology embargoes of the 2010s, economic instruments have repeatedly been repurposed as geopolitical weapons. The current proposal emerging from Washington—backed publicly by Donald Trump—to impose up to 500% tariffs on countries purchasing…
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The Most Critical Economic Challenge of 2026: Trade Policy Uncertainty
Every decade has one fault line that quietly reshapes the global economy. In the 1970s it was oil. In the 2000s it was financial leverage. In the 2020s, it is trade policy uncertainty—and by 2026, this uncertainty has become the single most destabilizing force in the global economic system. Unlike…
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Asia’s Export Engines Under Pressure: Semiconductors, Tariffs, and the Next Growth Reckoning
Asia’s post-pandemic recovery is entering a more fragile phase, shaped less by domestic cycles and more by the reordering of global technology, trade, and power. What appears today as a cyclical slowdown in exports and consumption is, in reality, a deeper structural transition—one where geopolitics, industrial policy, and technology controls…
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Merchandise Trade & Shipping: A World Moving Slower—but Thinking Deeper
Global merchandise trade and shipping are entering a phase that looks deceptively calm on the surface but is structurally far more complex beneath. Shipping volumes remain below their long-term trend, not because globalisation has ended, but because it is being re-engineered. After the post-pandemic surge and subsequent correction, firms are…
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The Long Road to an India–US Trade Compact: Between Strategic Convergence and Structural Friction
A Relationship Shaped by History, Not Habit The idea of an India–US Free Trade Agreement has resurfaced many times over the past three decades, only to stall at the intersection of economics and politics. Unlike India’s trade engagements with the EU, ASEAN, or even the UK, a US trade deal…
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India–EU Free Trade Agreement: From Missed Opportunities to a Strategic Economic Reset
The India–European Union economic relationship has long been defined by potential rather than performance. Despite being natural partners—India as a fast-growing consumption and manufacturing base, and the EU as a technology, capital, and standards powerhouse—bilateral trade has remained modest relative to scale. The renewed push toward an India–EU Free Trade…
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External Sector at a Crossroads: When Goods Stall and Services Carry the Load
India’s external sector has entered a familiar but increasingly fragile phase. Merchandise exports remain under sustained pressure, reflecting not just cyclical weakness but deeper structural shifts in the global economy. Weak global demand, prolonged manufacturing slowdowns in advanced economies, and ongoing trade-policy uncertainty have combined to dampen orders for goods-intensive…
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India–Russia Trade Reset: Strategic Openings After Putin’s 2025 Visit
India’s renewed engagement with Russia following Vladimir Putin’s December 4–5, 2025 visit marks a decisive shift in New Delhi’s long-term foreign economic strategy. The new Economic Cooperation Programme till 2030 signals that the partnership is evolving beyond energy dependency into a structured, multi-sector commercial relationship with a clearly stated ambition:…
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