Category: GDP
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India’s Growth Frontier in a Fragmented World: A Critical Outlook Based on Economic Survey 2025–26
India enters FY26-27 at a rare intersection of structural stability and global turbulence. Chapter 1 of the Economic Survey 2025-26, “State of the Economy: Pushing the Growth Frontier,” captures this paradox sharply: while the world remains caught between tariff wars, geopolitical realignments, and supply-chain volatility, India’s domestic engines continue to…
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The End of Easy Growth
Global business is moving into a structurally different phase—one where growth is slower, shocks are more frequent, and predictability is scarce. The post-Cold War era of liberalized trade, abundant liquidity, and volume-driven expansion is fading. In its place is an economy shaped by tighter monetary conditions, fragmented geopolitics, and policy…
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The US Economy in 2025: A Surge, a Slowdown, and a Strategic Crossroads
The United States entered late-2025 on a surprising note: GDP growth accelerated to 4.3% (annualized) in Q3, the strongest pace in two years and far above market expectations. This resurgence—impressive on the surface—comes after a volatile period marked by policy reversals, tariff redesigns, and recession anxieties. Historically, such late-cycle surges…
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India’s GDP Growth Story: Strong Numbers, Softer Foundations?A Critical Look Through the IMF Lens
India’s growth narrative today stands at an intriguing crossroads—powerfully expanding, yet increasingly questioned. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its October 2025 World Economic Outlook, reaffirmed India as the fastest-growing major economy, projecting 6.6% GDP growth for FY2025-26 and 6.2% for FY2026-27, despite intensifying US tariff pressures and global supply-chain…
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India’s Manufacturing Moment: From “Make in India” to “Invent in India”
India stands at an inflection point. The next two decades will determine whether the nation becomes one of the world’s leading manufacturing and innovation hubs—or remains a peripheral contributor to global supply chains. The ambition is clear: by 2047, when India completes 100 years of independence, manufacturing must evolve from…
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Review of RBI’s Monetary Policy (October 1, 2025)
1. A Timid Pause Amid Urgency The unchanged repo rate at 5.5% and a neutral stance reflect excessive caution at a time when essential. Having already delivered 100 bps cuts since February, the RBI has chosen passivity rather than leadership. The policy betrays an overreliance on “wait and watch” when…
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Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain: Why India Needs Actual Economic Power Like China
India today stands at a crossroads. On one hand, it is the world’s fastest-growing major economy, with ambitious goals of becoming a $5 trillion economy in the near future. On the other hand, it struggles with persistent challenges—employment gaps, infrastructure bottlenecks, and global competitiveness. The debate over whether India should…
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Structural Reforms: A Key to Sustained Consumer Growth
India’s economic trajectory has often been anchored by the strength of private consumption, which contributes nearly 60% to GDP. However, recent trends point to a deceleration that cannot be ignored. Private consumption growth, which stood between 8.5–12% during 2023–24, has slowed sharply to 6.4% in the first quarter of 2025.…
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Finance Ministry’s 8% Growth Target: Ambition or Overreach?
India’s Finance Ministry has set an ambitious goal—achieving 8% annual economic growth for the next decade to secure its path toward developed-country status by 2047. At first glance, this target reflects confidence in India’s resilience and potential, but it also raises difficult questions about feasibility in the face of global…
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