Category: international organisations
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Development in a Fragmented World: Cooperation or Competition?
A New Era of Fragmented Globalization The global economic system is entering a period of fragmentation where cooperation and competition increasingly coexist in complex ways. For decades after the Cold War, globalization appeared to move toward deeper integration. Supply chains expanded across continents, trade volumes grew faster than global GDP,…
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WTO at a Crossroads: Why the Global Trade Referee Needs a Deep Reset
For nearly three decades, the World Trade Organization has been the anchor of the global trading system—promising predictability, fairness, and stability. But the world it was designed for no longer exists. The smooth flows of globalization have given way to geopolitically filtered supply chains, climate-linked trade retaliation, digital sovereignty, industrial…
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A World Becoming Smaller—But Not Closer
Over the past four decades, the world has become smaller in terms of communication, transportation, and information exchange. Digital platforms compress distances; logistics networks deliver goods overnight; and technologies such as AI and blockchain make cross-border collaboration seamless. However, paradoxically, global trade is becoming more distant, fragmented, and politically conditioned.…
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WTO’s 2025 Trade Outlook — A Short-Lived Revival Amid Long-Term Uncertainty
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has raised its forecast for global merchandise trade volume growth to approximately 2.4% in 2025, a notable upgrade from its earlier projection of around 0.9%. This optimism, however, is tempered by a more somber forecast for 2026, when trade growth is expected to decelerate sharply…
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IMF’s Tariff Warning: Protectionism’s Hidden Drag on Global Growth
The International Monetary Fund’s October 2025 World Economic Outlook delivers a clear warning: the world may be entering an era where resilience masks erosion. While global GDP held up in early 2025, the IMF notes that persistent tariff barriers and protectionist impulses are slowly undermining the structural drivers of long-term…
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Global Trade at a Crossroads: What the WTO’s 0.5% Forecast Reveals About the Future of Globalization
A Sharp Correction to Global Trade Optimism The World Trade Organization (WTO) has sent a jolt through the global economic community by slashing its merchandise trade growth forecast for 2026 to just 0.5%, down sharply from the 1.8% projected earlier. This downgrade represents not just a cyclical slowdown but a…
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National Industrial Policies: Between Promise and Pitfall
The Return of Industrial Strategy The global economy is once again witnessing a strong return of industrial policy—once dismissed as outdated interventionism. From Washington to Brussels to Beijing, governments are aggressively using subsidies, tax incentives, and state-backed financing to build technological and manufacturing strength. The IMF, in its recent assessment,…
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AI and Global Trade: The Next Great Transformation
When the World Trade Organization projects that artificial intelligence could drive a 40% jump in global trade by 2040, it is not making a casual forecast—it is signaling a structural transformation comparable to the invention of the steam engine or the internet. The implications are profound, particularly for MSMEs in…
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Foreign Direct Investment in EMDEs: Trends, Challenges, and the Way Forward
Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) have been on a steady decline as a share of GDP since the global financial crisis. In the boom years of the 2000s, FDI inflows reached nearly 5% of GDP in a typical EMDE by 2008. Today, they…
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Digitizing Trade: Global Progress and Persistent Gaps
Amid a backdrop of global economic uncertainties and shifting trade dynamics, there is a positive trend emerging in international commerce—countries are steadily advancing in the digitization and simplification of trade processes. This momentum reflects a growing consensus on the critical role of digital and sustainable trade facilitation in enhancing efficiency,…
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