Category: international organisations
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WTO’s 2025 Trade Outlook — A Short-Lived Revival Amid Long-Term Uncertainty
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has raised its forecast for global merchandise trade volume growth to approximately 2.4% in 2025, a notable upgrade from its earlier projection of around 0.9%. This optimism, however, is tempered by a more somber forecast for 2026, when trade growth is expected to decelerate sharply…
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IMF’s Tariff Warning: Protectionism’s Hidden Drag on Global Growth
The International Monetary Fund’s October 2025 World Economic Outlook delivers a clear warning: the world may be entering an era where resilience masks erosion. While global GDP held up in early 2025, the IMF notes that persistent tariff barriers and protectionist impulses are slowly undermining the structural drivers of long-term…
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Global Trade at a Crossroads: What the WTO’s 0.5% Forecast Reveals About the Future of Globalization
A Sharp Correction to Global Trade Optimism The World Trade Organization (WTO) has sent a jolt through the global economic community by slashing its merchandise trade growth forecast for 2026 to just 0.5%, down sharply from the 1.8% projected earlier. This downgrade represents not just a cyclical slowdown but a…
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National Industrial Policies: Between Promise and Pitfall
The Return of Industrial Strategy The global economy is once again witnessing a strong return of industrial policy—once dismissed as outdated interventionism. From Washington to Brussels to Beijing, governments are aggressively using subsidies, tax incentives, and state-backed financing to build technological and manufacturing strength. The IMF, in its recent assessment,…
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AI and Global Trade: The Next Great Transformation
When the World Trade Organization projects that artificial intelligence could drive a 40% jump in global trade by 2040, it is not making a casual forecast—it is signaling a structural transformation comparable to the invention of the steam engine or the internet. The implications are profound, particularly for MSMEs in…
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Foreign Direct Investment in EMDEs: Trends, Challenges, and the Way Forward
Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) have been on a steady decline as a share of GDP since the global financial crisis. In the boom years of the 2000s, FDI inflows reached nearly 5% of GDP in a typical EMDE by 2008. Today, they…
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Digitizing Trade: Global Progress and Persistent Gaps
Amid a backdrop of global economic uncertainties and shifting trade dynamics, there is a positive trend emerging in international commerce—countries are steadily advancing in the digitization and simplification of trade processes. This momentum reflects a growing consensus on the critical role of digital and sustainable trade facilitation in enhancing efficiency,…
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The Growing Crisis of Fragile Economies: A Call for Urgent Global Action
Extreme poverty is rising at an alarming rate in countries plagued by conflict, fragility, and instability—marking a troubling reversal in global development trends. According to the latest Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations (FCS) report by the World Bank, these 39 economies now account for nearly half of the world’s extreme poor.…
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Bridging the Fiscal Gap in South Asia: Insights from the World Bank’s Regional Outlook
South Asia stands at a critical juncture. The World Bank’s latest regional economic update paints a sobering picture of dimming growth prospects, deepening fiscal vulnerabilities, and escalating climate threats. After a decade of external shocks and internal inefficiencies, the region must pivot decisively toward robust revenue mobilization and climate-resilient policy…
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Balancing Growth and Debt: The Dilemma of SEZs in a Debt-Ridden World
In recent years, the global economy has witnessed mounting debt burdens that are reshaping fiscal strategies across both developing and developed nations. With over a third of the world’s countries at risk of debt distress, governments are being forced to reprioritize spending, often pulling back on long-term development projects—including Special…
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