"Connecting communities, empowering nations: Unifying the Regional and Global Economy ."

India today stands at a crossroads. On one hand, it is the world’s fastest-growing major economy, with ambitious goals of becoming a $5 trillion economy in the near future. On the other hand, it struggles with persistent challenges—employment gaps, infrastructure bottlenecks, and global competitiveness. The debate over whether India should follow a “China-style” model of economic power is timely, especially as short-term sacrifices may be necessary to secure long-term gains.

The Meaning of “Short-Term Pain”

Economic growth rarely comes without trade-offs. For India, the immediate “pain” could include higher investments in infrastructure that stretch fiscal resources, structural reforms that may initially disrupt industries, or tougher competition for domestic firms as trade liberalization deepens. These adjustments can create discomfort in the short run—slower consumption growth, temporary job losses in certain sectors, or political resistance to reforms.

China’s Playbook: Building Actual Economic Power

China offers a striking case study. Over four decades, it deliberately absorbed short-term shocks in exchange for long-term dominance. This involved:

Infrastructure Investment: Massive public spending on transport, power, and industrial zones.

Export-Led Growth: Prioritizing global market share even if margins were low initially.

Policy Continuity: Long-term industrial strategies like “Made in China 2025” ensured sustained focus.

Human Capital & Manufacturing Ecosystems: Skills development, urbanization, and clusters boosted competitiveness.


The results are evident: China moved from being a low-cost manufacturer to a global innovation hub, with the world’s second-largest economy and geopolitical clout.

India’s Present Challenges

India’s economic structure differs. With consumption driving almost 60% of GDP, the temptation is to prioritize short-term growth through fiscal easing and welfare spending. However, this can limit long-term competitiveness. India faces three pressing issues:

1. Manufacturing Weakness – Manufacturing is only ~14% of GDP, compared to China’s peak of 30%.


2. Export Dependence – India’s exports are heavily skewed toward services; merchandise exports need diversification.


3. Policy Uncertainty – Frequent shifts in tax regimes, compliance norms, and trade policies discourage long-term investment.


The Case for Long-Term Gains

For India, genuine economic power will not come from GDP growth alone—it will depend on building productive capacity, technological depth, and resilience. This requires:

Structural Reforms: Labor, land, and capital markets must be simplified to unlock private investment.

Export Competitiveness: India must identify “sunrise sectors” (electronics, green tech, defense manufacturing) where it can dominate globally.

Domestic Strengthening: Improving logistics, reducing energy costs, and boosting ease of doing business to attract both domestic and foreign investment.

Geopolitical Strategy: Using FTAs and trade diplomacy to replicate China’s ability to embed itself deeply in global value chains.

Balancing Growth and Equity

The long-term strategy cannot ignore social stability. Unlike China, India is a democracy where reforms must be inclusive. This means protecting vulnerable groups during transitions, ensuring skilling programs for youth, and bridging the rural-urban divide.


India’s path to actual economic power will involve uncomfortable decisions today—accepting slower consumption growth, higher investments with delayed returns, and difficult reforms. But if it can stay the course, the “short-term pain” will pave the way for a “long-term gain,” enabling India to achieve what China did: a transformation from a large market into a genuine global economic force.

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