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India is currently engaged in what could be one of its most challenging trade negotiations in decades. While optimism is natural in such moments, the political and economic dynamics suggest that the road to a mutually beneficial agreement with the United States will be anything but straightforward.

At the surface level, Washington’s strategic calculus is clear: the U.S. sees India as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence in the global economy and geopolitics. But this is not necessarily a matter of goodwill or long-term partnership—it is, to a significant extent, a geopolitical tactic. The goal is less about empowering India and more about finding ways to disrupt China’s position in global supply chains.

The paradox is that while the U.S. might prefer India over China for the moment, history shows that economic success often changes the tone of such relationships. Just as America’s attitude toward China shifted once Beijing became a global manufacturing powerhouse, a more industrially advanced India may eventually face similar skepticism from Washington. For now, India enjoys the benefits of being the “underdog,” but that status is inherently temporary.

The hard truth is that Donald Trump’s economic philosophy is rooted in a protectionist vision. His trade worldview is not about diversifying supply chains to friendly nations—it is about bringing manufacturing back to American soil, regardless of whether the global economy operates on such terms. Even if India offered significant concessions in agriculture or other sectors, it is unlikely Trump would open U.S. markets wide enough to make India a full-scale replacement for China in American supply chains. This is because his political priority is protecting U.S. industries from “low-cost” competition—precisely the kind of competitive advantage India could offer.

This means that India’s strategy must be rooted in realism. While strengthening ties with the U.S. is vital, closing off options with China, Russia, or the European Union would be strategically unwise. Trade diplomacy cannot be reduced to a binary choice between aligning with America or maintaining economic engagement with other major powers. As history shows—whether in the colonial era with Britain or in more recent U.S. foreign policy—the narrative of “you’re either with us or against us” is a tool used to limit a country’s strategic room for maneuver.

India’s negotiators must therefore tread carefully. The promise of market access and strategic partnership may be tempting, but it should not come at the expense of long-term economic flexibility. The U.S. might currently find India useful in its geopolitical chess match, but the real measure of a sustainable partnership lies in whether the benefits are mutual, lasting, and aligned with India’s broader development goals.

For now, the upcoming rounds of trade talks will reveal whether this is a genuine economic partnership in the making—or a short-term alignment driven by political expediency. Either way, India must ensure it keeps its global options open.#IndiaUSTrade
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