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The global economic and geopolitical arena is witnessing one of its most defining rivalries: the growing influence of BRICS versus the entrenched dominance of the United States. While the media and political rhetoric often frame this as a battle for supremacy, the reality is more complex. There is no definitive “winner” yet, and both sides are escalating competition on multiple fronts, each with its own vulnerabilities.

BRICS on the Rise

BRICS—originally Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—has evolved from a loose grouping of emerging economies into a platform for coordinated economic and political positioning. Its recent expansion to include new members from the Middle East, Africa, and Asia underscores its ambition to promote a multipolar world order.

The group’s growing clout is evident in:

Trade diversification: BRICS nations are increasingly trading in local currencies, aiming to reduce dependence on the US dollar.

Strategic alliances: The platform now attracts interest from countries disillusioned with Western-centric institutions like the IMF and World Bank.

Institutional capacity: The New Development Bank, initiated by BRICS, offers an alternative source of funding for infrastructure and development without traditional Western conditionalities.


The message is clear: BRICS is positioning itself as a counterbalance to US-led global systems.

Washington’s Pushback

The United States, under the Trump administration, has responded with aggressive tariff strategies and warnings aimed at both BRICS members and potential joiners. Threats of up to 100% tariffs on BRICS exports targeting countries that bypass the US dollar are not just economic measures—they are signals of Washington’s determination to retain its central role in global trade.

This protectionist stance, however, carries risks. Tariffs can:

Strain relations with key allies such as Canada and Mexico, both of whom now show signs of engaging more openly with BRICS countries.

Trigger retaliatory measures, potentially hurting US exporters and investors abroad.

Increase domestic prices for goods reliant on BRICS-sourced imports.

Economic Risks on Both Sides

While the US remains the world’s largest economy, its strategy risks alienating traditional partners. According to trade analysts, if tariff tensions escalate, US GDP growth could slow by 0.4–0.6% over the next two years, with manufacturing and agriculture being the most affected sectors.

For BRICS, the challenge is different. Despite their collective economic size rivaling that of the US, many member economies remain heavily integrated with US trade and investment flows. Any miscalculation could disrupt exports, foreign direct investment, and technology transfers.

The Currency Question

A potential game-changer could be the creation of a BRICS currency, designed to rival the US dollar in global trade. While such a move could reduce dollar dependency, experts caution that dethroning the greenback will be an uphill climb. The dollar’s dominance is reinforced by:

Deep and liquid financial markets in the US.

The role of the dollar as the primary reserve currency for over 60% of global central bank holdings.

Network effects from decades of trade invoicing, debt issuance, and commodity pricing in dollars.


Unless BRICS can replicate the trust, stability, and scale of the US financial system, the dollar’s dominance will likely persist.

No Clear Winner—Yet

Current evidence suggests a stalemate rather than a decisive victory for either side:

BRICS is becoming more influential, drawing in countries seeking alternatives to US-led systems.

The US still holds systemic advantages in finance, defense, and innovation but faces the growing challenge of maintaining global leadership without alienating allies.


The real risk is not that one side “wins” outright, but that intensifying rivalry fractures the global economic system into competing blocs—reducing efficiency, increasing costs, and limiting cooperation on shared global challenges like climate change and public health.

Bottom Line: BRICS is rising, but not yet ready to replace US leadership; the US remains dominant but faces unprecedented challenges. The more both sides escalate, the more likely the global economy will bear the cost of a divided world order.

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