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From Rio to Dubai — The Evolution of Climate Diplomacy

The United Nations’ Conference of the Parties (COP) has long stood as the cornerstone of global climate governance. From the Rio Earth Summit (1992) that birthed the UNFCCC, to the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and the Paris Agreement (2015), the COP process has symbolized the fragile yet vital hope that multilateralism can overcome climate inertia.

Over three decades, it has been the only global forum where both developed and developing nations converge — not as competitors, but as co-survivors on a warming planet. Yet, as the Financial Times editorial (“Keep the COP Process Alive,” Nov 9 2025) cautions, this delicate architecture is under strain. With the U.S. reportedly pressing negotiators at COP30 to dilute commitments, the integrity of the entire process is at risk.

When Multilateralism Falters

Today’s global environment is more fractured than at any time since the Cold War. Geopolitical rivalries, trade wars, and technological decoupling have eroded trust among nations. Institutions like the WTO, WHO, and even the IMF are struggling to command consensus.

In this climate of fragmentation, the COP process becomes more than an environmental platform — it is a stress test of international cooperation itself. Abandoning or weakening it would signal that nations have accepted a future governed by unilateralism, where national interest trumps planetary survival.

The FT’s warning is thus not only environmental but existential: if COP falls, global governance itself may unravel.

The New Axis of Power

Just two days before the November 9 editorial, the Financial Times published “How to Curb China’s Grip on Rare Earths” (Nov 7 2025) — highlighting how strategic materials have become a new geopolitical weapon. Rare earths are essential to clean technologies: wind turbines, EV batteries, solar panels. China’s dominance, controlling over 60% of global supply, exposes the world to “green dependency”.

Here lies the paradox: while COP summits urge greener transitions, the materials required for that transition are concentrated within a single geopolitical bloc. Energy security and environmental goals now intersect in ways that make cooperation both necessary and difficult.

The future of COP, therefore, cannot be isolated from trade or technology diplomacy. The fight for climate integrity is also a fight for equitable access to clean-tech resources.

Re-engineering Global Climate Governance

To keep the COP process alive, the world must innovate not only in technology but also in governance models.
Three key shifts are essential:

1. From Pledges to Accountability: Nations must move beyond voluntary Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) toward enforceable climate commitments tied to global trade mechanisms and carbon-border standards.


2. From State Diplomacy to Multi-Stakeholder Governance: Cities, corporations, and communities should have formal roles in COP processes, as they drive more emissions and solutions than many states.

3. From Carbon Metrics to Systemic Resilience: Climate action must integrate biodiversity, migration, and supply-chain resilience — recognizing that sustainability is an ecosystem, not an index.

If COP30 in Brazil (2025) fails to realign on these principles, it risks becoming ceremonial — a stage for rhetoric rather than reform.

The Moral Imperative: Institutions Matter

In a world defined by disorder — from trade protectionism to AI geopolitics — institutions remain humanity’s best bet against chaos. The COP process, imperfect as it is, represents continuity in a century of disruptions. Its collapse would not just slow climate action; it would erode the belief that collective governance can solve global problems.

Thus, the call to “keep the COP process alive” is more than an editorial plea. It is a defense of rational globalism against the rising tide of nationalist fragmentation.


Between Hope and Realpolitik

The future of the COP framework will determine whether climate diplomacy remains a shared global endeavor or fractures into regional eco-blocs. The rare-earth debate underscores that sustainability is now inseparable from strategic autonomy.

The world must therefore preserve the integrity of COP not as nostalgia for multilateralism, but as a strategic necessity for survival. History will not forgive a generation that traded cooperation for convenience.

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