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The world is on the cusp of an epoch-defining shift—one not just of technology, but of human identity, work, and power. A growing consensus, sometimes referred to as the San Francisco consensus, is emerging among the world’s leading AI research labs: that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)—a system as capable as the most brilliant human mind—is not decades away, but just around the corner.

In the next 12 months, a transformative trend is expected to reshape the digital workforce: a vast majority of programmers could be replaced by AI programmers. While this might sound far-fetched to many outside Silicon Valley, early evidence suggests that AI systems can already generate significant portions of usable code. Research teams from frontier labs like OpenAI and others have revealed that 10% to 20% of their latest code is not written by humans at all—but by AI itself, in a process known as recursive self-improvement. This means that AI is not only writing code but also improving its own ability to write better code with each iteration.

But programming is just the beginning. These AI systems are also displaying rapid mastery in domains traditionally reserved for elite human intellect. Within a year, it is anticipated that we’ll see AI systems performing at the level of the top graduate-level mathematicians—those at the absolute peak of intellectual rigor and problem-solving capacity. And mathematics, combined with programming, forms the foundational layer of our entire digital and computational world. From cryptography and quantum computing to data science and economics, these two disciplines underpin modern civilization.

So what happens when both are mastered by machines?

The implication is not merely one of automation or efficiency—it is existential. As this trend scales, Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)—a machine intelligence that matches or surpasses the smartest humans in reasoning, creativity, empathy, and even leadership—becomes not just likely but inevitable within the next 3 to 5 years. The AGI would be capable of solving equations like a Fields Medalist, strategizing like a top diplomat, writing novels like Tolstoy, composing music like Mozart, or even leading negotiations like Nelson Mandela.

In short, AGI could be the ultimate polymath, but not just one—billions of them, accessible to everyone, all the time.

This ushers in a completely new societal structure. If each of us carries in our pocket a digital entity more intelligent than the brightest human minds in every field, then the very idea of expertise changes. Traditional pathways to success—through education, experience, and hierarchical learning—could be rendered obsolete. Productivity may surge, but so might inequality, disinformation, and geopolitical tension, depending on who controls access to these systems.

From an economic standpoint, entire industries built around human expertise and decision-making could face obsolescence. The global software development industry, which was valued at over $430 billion in 2023, could see massive restructuring. The same applies to consulting, education, scientific research, design, and even creative writing. Employment models may collapse, prompting urgent questions around universal basic income, upskilling, and mental health in a world where machines outthink humans.

But this isn’t necessarily dystopian. With the right regulatory frameworks, ethical safeguards, and inclusive design principles, AGI could be humanity’s most powerful collaborator rather than its replacement. We might solve climate change, eliminate rare diseases, democratize knowledge, and radically enhance productivity across the board.

Yet the speed of change is daunting. It calls for global coordination—on laws, on rights, on ethical boundaries—to ensure that this intelligence revolution serves collective interests rather than elite monopolies.

The world is now entering the age of recursive intelligence, where machines will not only think but also learn to think better. This shift is no longer science fiction. It’s an imminent reality that demands preparation, imagination, and courage.

We must ask ourselves: when every one of us holds the equivalent of the smartest human mind in our pocket, what becomes of our own intelligence, our societies, our economies—and above all, our purpose?

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